Components of assessing risk

Hazard is a natural phenomenon that might have a negative effect on humans or the environment. Natural hazard events can be classified into two broad categories: geophysical and biological. Geophysical hazards encompass geological and meteorological phenomena such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, wildfires, cyclonic storms, floods, droughts, and landslides. Biological hazards can refer to a diverse array of disease, infection, and infestation.

The components of assessing risk (and the associated losses) include:

Hazard is defined as the probability of experiencing a certain intensity of hazard (eg. Earthquake, cyclone etc) at a specific location and is usually determined by an historical or user-defined scenario, probabilistic hazard assessment, or other method. Some hazard modules can include secondary perils (such as soil liquefaction or fires caused by earthquakes, or storm surge associated with a cyclone).
Exposure represents the stock of property and infrastructure exposed to a hazard, and it can include socioeconomic factors.
Vulnerability accounts for the susceptibility to damage of the assets exposed to the forces generated by the hazard. Fragility and vulnerability functions estimate the damage ratio and consequent loss respectively, and/or the social cost (e.g., number of injured, homeless, and killed) generated by a hazard, according to a specified exposure.

But, even within the simple framework of risk as a function of hazard, exposure and vulnerability, there exist a multitude of possible approaches to risk assessment and risk modelling (GFDRR, 2014a).

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